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HISTORY:
- EXTINCTION VS. SURVIVAL -
(page 7)
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Criticality (continued):
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Thylacine population decline - 1900 to 1940 (continued)
Place your pointer over the maps to see the place names of the location markers.
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Note: The blue markers in the TNE and TBL regions in the 1930-1940 map above are thought to be possibly due to dating discrepancies and misidentifications.
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    Sleightholme & Campbell (2015) state: "The CKS [Capture, Kill & Sightings] data provides the most accurate assessment of the thylacine's post-1900 distribution to date.  Historically, the species' distribution was continuous from the east to west coasts, with population densities highest in the dry and mixed sclerophyll forests and coastal heath of the east and north-west coasts, and lowest in the buttongrass plains of the south and south-west.  At the beginning of the 20th century, the records show that there were three main thylacine populations in Tasmania.  An eastern population in the area of the Ben Lomond National Park, a central population in the Highlands, and a northwestern
population in the area of the Arthur-Pieman rivers.  Of these, the Central Highlands population was by far the largest.  It is also known that a fragmented southern population existed along the
south-west coast.  That there was movement between these populations is evidenced by the rapid spread of the epizootic disease.  The CKS records confirm that between 1900 and 1910, the thylacine population experienced a rapid decline, and the probable cause was not bounty hunting, but disease.  The records reveal that the thylacine became extinct in the eastern half of the state in the early 1920s, and from its former strongholds in the Midlands and Central Highlands by the early 1930s.  The remaining population became fragmented in the 1930s, with an Arthur-Pieman population in the north-west, a Franklin-Gordon population in the west, a Florentine population to the south and a Cape Sorrell - Port Davey population along the south-west coast.  The study supports the
existence of a corridor linking the three main populations as proposed by Bailey.  The authors contend that the thylacine survived with near certainty beyond the death of the last captive specimen in 1936, and that the species was extant throughout the 1940s, and possibly beyond".
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east-to-west decline in thylacine populations from 1900 to 1940
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East-to-west decline in thylacine populations from 1900 to 1940.  Stippling represents the area of known occurrence.
After Sleightholme & Campbell (2015).

    Remarkably, the east-to-west extinction of the thylacine as demonstrated by Sleightholme & Campbell (2015) is virtually mirrored by the spread of DFTD in the Tasmanian devil population, as shown in the following map from a recent paper entitled "Rapid evolutionary response to a transmissible cancer in Tasmanian devils", published in the journal Nature Communications (Epstein et al., 2016).  This would indicate, as Paddle (2000) suggests, and Sleightholme & Campbell (2015) concur, that disease played an important part in the thylacine's demise.

DFTD front in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015
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The magenta lines indicate the approximate location of the DFTD front in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015.  The three focal populations used in the study are labeled with large magenta circles.  The small grey circles mark additional sampling sites.  Source: Epstein, et al. (2016).
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References
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back to: Extinction vs. Survival (page 6) return to the section's introduction forward to: Extinction vs. Survival (page 8)


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